With the dust settling from last week’s runoffs, two Democratic congressmen have the GOP mustering at their gates. Republicans’ best shot at winning congressional seats in Texas are CD-23 and CD-17, currently held by Democrats Ciro Rodriguez of San Antonio and Chet Edwards of Waco, respectively.

Rodriguez’s district is heavily Hispanic, but contains pockets of Republican strongholds in North Bexar County. Edwards’ district is the most Republican held by Democrat in Congress, but he’s held that seat through thick and thin since 1992.

Canseco’s victory last week prompted Cook’s Political Report to shift its rating of the 23rd district from “likely Democratic” to “lean Democratic.” Dave Wasserman, the publication’s House analyst, explains: “Republicans finally got the candidate they wanted here … I don’t base that alone on his ethnicity, he has a pretty solid business background and he has run here before in South Texas.”

“This district deceptively dangerous for Democrats because it took a very high Hispanic turnout to produce a very narrow win for Barack Obama in 2008,” Wasserman said, “I predict that the Hispanic share of the electorate will go down in 2010.”

CD-17, which Cook’s consistently rates “Lean Democratic,” is growing more and more Republican each year, and in an election cycle likely to be rough on Democrats, Wasserman predicts Edwards will face a tough fight to keep his seat. The National Republican Congressional Committee has long had Edwards in its sights: “Pete Sessions, the chair of the NRCC, considers it his unfinished business to defeat Chet Edwards,” Wasserman said.