Texans are focused on the economy — and relatively pessimistic about the national outlook — according to a new public policy poll done by the Texas Lyceum.
Texans think the state economy is in better shape than the national economy and that their children will be better off or at least equal in prosperity. They also think the worst is ahead, and they're opposed to bailouts of carmakers and financial institutions. And just to turn that on it's head, they'd be willing to spend more money — even if it increases deficits — on roads, education, energy technology, and on affordability and accessibility of health care.
They're also solidly in favor of Voter ID, open to legalizing same-sex unions, and split almost evenly on taxpayer funding for stem cell research.
The telephone poll — The poll was conducted for the group by Daron Shaw of the University of Texas at Austin and by James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at UT — was done after the legislative session, during the June 5-12 period, and included 860 adults. The margin of error is +/- 3.34 percent. It was commissioned by the Texas Lyceum, a statewide leadership organization. Full poll results (and those for two previous polls) are online here. And the group followed the next day with a poll on statewide political races.
Texans are split on the overall direction of things, with 48 percent saying the U.S. is moving in the right direction and 45 percent saying the country is on the wrong track. They overwhelmingly agree that the economy and unemployment are the most important issue facing the country (62 percent), with health care, at 12 percent, far behind. The most important issues facing the state? Economy/Unemployment (35 percent), Immigration/Border Control/Illegal Immigrants (13 percent), and Health Care/Vaccination (8 percent).
They believe the country is worse off than a year ago (58 percent), and put Unemployment and Jobs at the top of the economic issues in Texas (41 percent) in general, and for themselves and their families in particular (27 percent). Even so, many Texans say they are personally in about the same shape they were in a year ago (46 percent) or in better shape (17 percent) economically. For more than a third, however, the economic situation has worsened over the year. Two in five Texans think their children will be better off than they are and another 18 percent think their kids will be about the same economically. Texans are pessimistic about the immediate prospects for the national economy, with 53 percent saying the worst is yet to come. Almost two-thirds believe the Texas economy is healthier than the national economy, and only 8 percent think things are worse here than in the rest of the country.
The respondents were relatively confident about their own situations, but worry about the financial markets and how they're personally affected. More than three-quarters are "very" or "somewhat" confident they can make their mortgage or rent payments and 85 percent are confident in the stability of their banks. Three in five believe their jobs are secure. But Texans are split when asked about the safety of their retirement funds, and almost two-thirds are "not very" or "not at all" confident about investing in the stock market.
Nearly a third have stopped putting money in their retirement accounts in the last 12 months, but almost as many have started new retirement accounts in the same period, and one in five moved retirement money into less risky investments. About a fourth of respondents put off education or training for financial reasons and more than a third put off the purchase of a car. Smaller but significant numbers prematurely pulled money out of retirement accounts, put off their retirement dates, or put off selling their homes.
By a two-to-one margin, Texans think the federal government will spend too much money (rather than too little) trying to boost the economy. But they're choosy about where they're willing and unwilling to spend. Three in five (62 percent) would support higher spending on roads and infrastructure even if that would increase government deficits, but 71 percent oppose more spending to bail out financial institutions, and 64 percent oppose more spending to keep automakers from failure. Most (74 percent) favor more spending on energy technology, to make health care more affordable and accessible (66 percent), and to improve education systems (78 percent). Slightly more than half would favor tax cuts even if those cuts lead to deficits. They're divided on whether to increase regulation of financial institutions. And almost two-thirds believe automakers should be allowed to succeed or fail without government intervention.
Texans are confident that the economic stimulus is helping to make the downturn less severe than it would otherwise be (58 percent), and most are willing to wait to decide whether the Obama Administration policies are working. Their patience varies: 24 percent will wait two or more years; 20 percent will wait two years; 29 percent will wait a year; and 23 percent said they're already out of patience.
Texas turned down $556 million in unemployment insurance stimulus funds, and 58 percent of our respondents agree with Gov. Rick Perry that the money had too many strings attached. Another 34 percent thought the state did the wrong thing in turning down money to shore up that program.
Most Texans don't oppose same-sex unions, but they're split in their support for marriage or civil unions. While more than a third (36 percent) oppose either arrangement, 32 percent said they would support civil unions and another 25 percent think same-sex marriages should be permitted. The poll found a distinct partisan difference, with civil unions as the preference of 29 percent of Democrats, 31 percent of Independents and 37 percent of Republicans; same-sex marriage the preferred alternative of 36 percent of Democrats, 25 percent of Independents, and 14 percent of Republicans. Allowing neither of those alternatives was the preference of 29 percent of Democrats, 25 percent of Independents, and 43 percent of Republicans.
The recent legislative session ended without any resolution of the Voter ID issue, which divided Republicans and Democrats in the Legislature. But voters support the idea (71 percent), and more than half of them "strongly" support it (54 percent). It's a winner across party lines, with support among Democrats (58 percent), Independents (68 percent), and Republicans (86 percent). Support for Voter ID is stronger among Anglos (88 percent) and African-Americans (85 percent) than with Hispanics (69 percent), but all of those groups support the idea. And only 2 percent of Texans are undecided on the issue.
Texans are evenly split over the use of state tax dollars to fund embryonic stem cell research, with 48 percent saying they would support that and 46 percent saying they would oppose it. The intensity of feeling on that issue was roughly even, with 27 percent "strongly" in support and 30 percent "strongly" in opposition.
Disclosure Being Good for the Soul: Our editor helped kick around the questions that were asked in the poll and wrote the poll summaries to explain all of those numbers that resulted. Now you know.
