Craddick Folds

No

House Speaker Tom Craddick is dropping his reelection bid, telling fellow representatives tonight he doesn't have the votes to win another term in that job and freeing them to vote for others, a list that includes Reps. Joe Straus III of San Antonio, John Smithee of Amarillo, and Dan Gattis of Georgetown.

Straus told the San Antonio Express-News on Saturday he had enough votes to win the speakership; he's planning to release a list as early as tonight with at least enough names to prove it.

Straus, picked Friday night by a bloc of 11 Republicans who oppose Craddick, spent that night, all day Saturday and most of the day Sunday calling members and collecting signatures from supporters.

He says now he has all of the votes he needs to win. If members believe him, his list will balloon over the next several hours as representatives who were uncommitted or pledged to other candidates sign up.

Smithee, meanwhile, appears to be the leading alternative to Straus with Craddick out of the race. Gattis has been in the contest longest, but Smithee never directly challenged the incumbent. That nuance might be important to Craddick supporters, who blame Gattis and all of the other challengers for precipitating Craddick's fall. Smithee would be the beneficiary of that kind of thinking.

But he might also be too late. Craddick's departure is an indication he doesn't think he can get to the magic number of 76. His strongest opponents are committed to Straus. The question is whether, in his wake, there are enough uncommitted votes and changeable votes to put anyone but Straus in the corner office.