As the campaigns enter these last weeks, we rate the chances of party changes in top congressional and statehouse races. We lifted this idea from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking districts by the threat each incumbent (or incumbent party, in the case of open seats) faces, and giving it a garish color. Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.
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Republican consultants, sobered by bad news on the national front, still say they'll sweep the statewide seats in Texas, hold off Democratic challengers in two congressional seats and knock off a Democrats in Congress, hold onto all three contested state Senate seats, and gain one seat in the House, ensuring another two years with the GOP in control of all statewide offices, the congressional delegation and both chambers in the statehouse.
Democrats enter the final stretch with what, in a different context, was called irrational exuberance. It's difficult to find any takers on most of the statewide seats, but they're optimistic about a couple of judgeships. The congressional assessment is a straight flip, with the Democrats thinking they'll hold off the serious challengers and knock off the Republicans in two more. They remain optimistic about two of the three hot Senate races, and they think they might pick up enough seats in the House — it would take a net of five — to regain the control they lost after redistricting in the 2002 elections.
We find Republicans and Democrats alike who think the changes in the Texas House could be large enough to threaten the tenure of Speaker Tom Craddick.
Write these starting numbers at the top of your scorecard. After the 2006 elections the Republicans had 19 members of the 32-member congressional delegation, 20 of the state's 31 senators, and 81 of the state's 150 House members. Since then, the Democrats picked up two House seats, from a special election a year ago and from a party switcher who got fed up during his first legislative session last year and left the GOP for the Democrats. Next week, you can record the changes.