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Published on Texas Weekly (http://texasweekly.com)

Unexpected Results

By ramsey
Created 9 May 2008 - 12:55am
No

Two new polls — one done on the Internet and the other on behalf of Democratic bloggers — say the Texas race for U.S. Senate is closer than you thought. Both have U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, only four percentage points ahead of Democrat Rick Noriega.

The Research 2000 poll, done for the Daily Kos [1], has Cornyn at 48 percent and Noriega at 44 percent, with a 4 percent margin of error. That was a phone poll done last week. A Rasmussen online poll [2] released earlier in the week had Cornyn at 47 and Noriega at 43; it had a 4.5 percent margin of error.

Most polls up to this point have reported a double-digit gap between the candidates, with Noriega stuck in the low 30s, and these new surveys don't reveal any changes that might underlie the new numbers. A recurring sour spot for Cornyn: Few recent polls show him getting more than 50 percent of the vote. That's not fatal, but it's a sign of potential trouble.

The results? Noriega immediately began touting the results in his fundraising messages. Cornyn's camp said the polls are flawed and that their guy still enjoys a sizable lead.


Source URL:
http://texasweekly.com/node/2889